Thursday, June 23, 2011

The problem with Battle Points

Let me begin by saying I recognize that battle points are often a necessary evil. Most tournaments don’t have enough rounds to determine a single undefeated winner, and we need some way to match up players in rounds after round 1.  We also need a way of differentiating between players that have the same number of wins after all rounds have been played. However, after reading Mike Brandt’s post about evaluative Vs competitive, several forum discussions, as well as a tournament I played last weekend I got to thinking, do battle points do a good job of determining the best player on the day.  I would say the answer to this is often no, and when they do I would say that the winner is determined despite the battle points, not because of them.

I’ll use my local tournament as an example of what I think the problems with battle points are.  This was a 3 round tournament, with battle points determining the winner.  We had 14 players (fairly small but it was father’s day.).  I will also admit I don’t remember all the records of every player, so I will do my best. The first round was Kill points, with a secondary objective of having all your troops above 50%, you also got bonus points for difference in battle points between you and your opponent at the end of the game.  I ended up winning 10 -4 in KPs, getting the secondary objective, but not a full massacre (I had 20 out of 22 possible points), which earned me a spot on the second table (top table was a Grey Knight player and an Ork player who had massacred in round 1, lets ignore that Grey Knights are a horrible match up for Orks for the moment) playing against a 3 Land raider blood angel force in capture and control.  Again I got the win 1 objective to 0, but I did not massacre.  My win was however enough to get me to the top table against the Grey Knight player (I was also running Grey Knights at the tournament).  We had a hard fought battle (3 objectives) which ended in a draw on objectives, but my opponent got the secondary objective (table quarters), and more victory points.  He finished the day 3-0, and finished second overall (I got third).  Effectively we had knocked each other out of the top spot.

So who won you might ask?  A guard player (who is a good player) with a much easier road to the top finished first overall.  He played another Guard army (run by a weaker player) round 1, and won with around the same amount of battle points as I had.  Round 2 he went on to play against a chaos Daemon player, who he beat (in a close game), and then he went on to Massacre a Marine player in the last round, amassing enough points to take the top spot.  He won all 3 games, but against lesser opposition.  I will admit that some of the problem here is that there were not that many players.

Let’s just look at the roads to the top 2 tables.    

Me
Grey Knights Vs Dark Eldar 1 (this player finished either 2-1 or 1-2 I’m not 100% sure)
Grey knights  Vs 3 LR BA (this player finished 2-1)
Grey Knights Vs Grey Knights A (this player was 3-0)  

SO my opponents were either 6-3 or 7-2 overall

 Grey Knights A
Grey Knights A Vs Dark Eldar 2 (this player was either 2-1 or 1-2)
Grey Knights A Vs Orks (finished 2-1)
Grey Knights A Vs Grey Knights (this was me so 2-1)

So his opponents were either 6-3 or 5-4

Guard
Guard Vs Guard (1-2)
Guard Vs Daemons (1-2)
Guard vs Marines (2-1)

So his opponents were 4-5

Marines
Marines Vs Chaos (0-3)
Marines Vs Nids (0-3)
Marines Vs Guard (3-0)
This player’s opponents were 3-6

And here we can see the issue, the marine player only played against one player who won a game, and when he did he lost to that player badly.  Now that is not his fault, nor would it have necessarily have been any different under a different format.  I’m not saying we should penalize the guard player who won all of his games, all I am saying is that there should be some metric to take strength of schedule into account.  I was fine with being 3rd, I lost a game, I should not have won, however, the player who beat me, who played on the top table all day against winning players should get something for playing against harder competition.  When it would have been better to me to have won by less to get onto table 2 we have a problem.  The Grey knight player who I played in the last round deserved to win; the fact that I am a strong player should not have cost him the win.

Battle Points ended up something like this

Guard 56
Grey Knights A 52
Me 48

What needs to happen is for each player to gain something for playing stronger competition, maybe add a percent of their opponents total battle points to the final battle point standings.  Let us just say for example the full list was something like this

Guard 56
Grey Knights A 52
Me 48
3 LR BA 44
Marines 42
Orks 40
DE 1 35
DE 2 32
Daemons 31
BA   22
Marines 2 20
Nids  18
Guard 2 16
Chaos  6


If you got say 20% of all the battle points for opponents you beat added to your score, and 10% of those you lost to added to your score you would get something like this for your top 6

Grey Knights A 76 points
Guard 73.8
Me  69
3 LR BA 59.4
Orks 52.8
Marines 52.4

As you can see not a whole lot changed at the top, I am still in 3rd, but 1st and 2nd have swapped places because Grey Knights A played a tougher schedule, as did the Ork player who now moves from 6th to 5th.  I’m not saying that this is perfect, it still needs looking into, and overall I would prefer win\loss tournaments as far as determining the best player.  I’m also of the opinion that these numbers should only ever be used to rank people who finished with the same overall record.  A 2-1 player should never finish ahead of a 3-0 player, because in theory they should have been playing a similar level of competition, but the 3-0 player who played against the best competition should gain something for playing tough games.

Friday, June 17, 2011

Analysis of Troops: Stage two Close Combat wounds dealt

Continuing down our exploration of the 40k troop choices, we'll take a look at which units dole out the most wounds point for point.  I crunched the numbers for all the basic troops against opponents with WS3 and 4 and Toughness 3 and 4, to see how effective these units are in close combat for the points you spend. I also did not take charging into account. SO cutting to the chase here are the rankings.


No real surprise that Orks rank at the top, with 3 attacks each and WS 4 at 6 points they can really pump out a lot of punishment.  I find it interesting the Ripper swarms place so highly and most people completely disregard them as an option (due to their special rules).

Also of note, for those that argue Grey Knights are sub par in the assault...that holds true as Strike squads are point for point the equivalent of eldar guardians, and point for point their terminators are worse than tactical marines and barely better than Tau Fire Warriors.  Now GKs have other advantages that are not being looked at here, but from sheer output of wounds, they don't stack up.

Finally the last thing I find interesting, is that for wound output point for point, Summoned Lesser Daemons in the Chaos Space marine codex are better than Bloodletters (when you take other things into account, as we will later this does not hold up on the table.)

Overall rank
 Troop type
1
  Ork Boyz
2
  Shoota Boyz
3
Rippers
4
Hormagaunts
5
Wyches
5
Templars
7
Berzerkers
8
Genestealers
9
Summoned Lesser Daemons
10
Bloodletters
10
Nurglings
12
Kroot
13
CSM
14
Daemonettes
15
Grey Hunters
16
Guard Infantry Platoon
17
Tyranid Warriors
18
Blood Claws
19
Termagants
19
Gretchin
21
BA Assault Squad
22
Penal Legion
23
Death company
24
Veterans
25
Noise marines
26
Plague marines
27
DE Warriors
28
Guardians
28
GK Strike Squad
30
Plague bearers
31
Dire Avengers
32
DA Tacticals
33
Tacticals
34
Inquisitorial Storm Troopers
35
Scouts
36
GK Terminators
37
Fire Warriors
38
Necron Warriors
39
Battle Sisters
40
Thousand Sons
41
Pink Horrors
42
Rangers
43
Guardian Jetbikes

 




So here are the numbers for those who are interested.

Overall rank
Troop type
# of Models
WS3 T3
WS4 T3
WS3  T4
WS4 T4
1
Ork Boyz
16.6666667
16.66666667
12.5
11.1111111
8.33333334
2
Shoota Boyz
16.6666667
11.11111111
12.5
7.40740741
5.55555556
3
Rippers
10
10
10
6.66666667
6.66666667
4
Hormagaunts
16.6666667
8.583333335
8.58333334
5.72222222
5.72222222
5
Wyches*
10
7.407407407
5.74074074
5.67901235
4.44444444
5
Templars**
6.25
7.407407407
6.25
5.55555556
4.16666667
7
Berzerkers
4.76190476
6.349206349
6.34920635
4.76190476
4.76190476
8
Genestealers
7.14285714
6.349206349
6.34920635
4.76190476
4.76190476
9
Summoned Lesser Daemons
7.69230769
6.837606837
5.12820513
5.12820513
3.84615385
10
Bloodletters
6.25
5.555555556
5.55555556
4.16666667
4.16666667
10
Nurglings
7.69230769
5.769230769
5.76923077
3.84615385
3.84615385
12
Kroot
14.2857143
6.349206351
4.76190476
4.76190476
3.57142857
13
CSM
6.66666667
5.925925926
4.44444444
4.44444444
3.33333333
14
Daemonettes
7.14285714
5.357142857
5.35714286
3.57142857
3.57142857
15
Grey Hunters
6.66666667
5.925925926
4.44444444
4.44444444
3.33333333
16
Guard Infantry Platoon
19.2307692
5.307692308
5.30769231
3.53846154
3.53846154
17
Tyranid Warriors
3.33333333
4.814814814
4.81481481
3.61111111
3.61111111
18
Blood Claws
6.66666667
4.444444445
4.77777778
3.58333333
3.58333333
19
Termagants
20
5
5
3.33333333
3.33333333
19
Gretchin
27.5
5.583333333
5.25
3.01388889
2.79166667
21
BA Assault Squad
5.2631579
5.122807018
3.84210526
3.84210526
2.88157895
22
Penal Legion***
12.5
4.583333333
4.58333333
3.05555556
3.05555556
23
Death company
5
5
3.75
3.33333333
2.5
24
Veterans
14.2857143
4.071428573
4.07142857
2.71428572
2.71428572
25
Noise marines
5
4.444444444
3.33333333
3.33333333
2.5
26
Plague marines
4.34782609
3.8647343
2.89855072
2.89855072
2.17391304
27
DE Warriors
11.1111111
3.703703703
2.77777778
2.4691358
1.85185185
28
Guardians
12.5
3.125
3.125
2.08333333
2.08333333
28
GK Strike Squad
5
3.25308642
2.43981481
2.59259259
1.94444444
30
Plague bearers
6.66666667
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
31
Dire Avengers
8.33333333
2.777777778
2.08333333
1.85185185
2.94444444
32
DA Tacticals
6.06060606
3.138047138
2.35353535
2.35353535
1.76515152
33
Tacticals
5.88235294
3.058823529
2.29411765
2.29411765
1.72058824
34
Inquisitorial Storm Troopers
10
2.75
2.75
1.83333333
1.83333333
35
Scouts
7.14285714
2.714285714
2.03571429
2.03571429
2.03571429
36
GK Terminators
2.5
2.731481481
2.04861111
2.17592593
1.63194444
37
Fire Warriors
10
2.5
2.5
1.66666667
1.66666667
38
Necron Warriors
5.55555556
2.469135803
1.85185185
1.85185185
1.38888889
39
Battle Sisters
9.09090909
2.272727273
2.27272727
1.51515152
1.51515152
40
Thousand Sons
3.6101083
2.048937024
1.53670277
1.53670277
1.15252708
41
Pink Horrors
5.88235294
1.470588235
1.47058824
0.98039216
0.98039216
42
Rangers
5.2631579
1.315789474
1.31578947
0.87719298
0.87719298
43
Guardian Jetbikes
4.54545455
1.136363636
1.13636364
0.75757576
0.75757576


































* Yes I did take Combat drugs into account for the Wyches
** Templars were calculated using Prefered enemy, due to Accept any chalange because everyone takes this Vow
*** I did calculate the Penal Legion taking the chances of getting Knife Fighters